Time： 2024-08-18  韦克威科技

What are the chances of a fighter jet escaping after being locked by a missile?

What are the chances of a fighter jet escaping after being locked by a missile?

On October 7, 1959, the Soviet made S-75/Sam-2 surface to air missile system of the People's Liberation Army Air Force's surface to air missile unit shot down a Taiwanese made RB-57D high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft in Tongxian, Beijing. Pilot Wang Yingqin's body was cut into several pieces by anti-aircraft missile fragments while parachuting.

Relevant personnel recalled the detailed process:

When the RB-57D high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft is 400-500 kilometers away from Beijing, the S-75 missile system enters combat readiness;

The reconnaissance plane began to climb high, and when it was 100 kilometers away from the anti-aircraft missile battalion position, the missile battalion issued the order to prepare to launch missiles;

When the reconnaissance plane was 41 kilometers away from the missile battalion, the missile battalion launched its first anti-aircraft missile;

At a distance of 40 kilometers, a second anti-aircraft missile was launched;

At a distance of 39 kilometers, the third anti-aircraft missile was launched.

All three missiles hit the target, which is also the world's first case of a missile shooting down an enemy aircraft.

In some aerial combat films, the opposite scene often appears: when the fighter jet is locked by the enemy, the pilot displays various evasive actions such as lifting and dodging, successfully avoiding the enemy's missile tracking, completing the mission and returning triumphantly.

So, in practical situations, can fighter jets know that they are locked in, and what are the chances of escaping after being locked in?

Although the radar beam cannot be seen with the naked eye, one can imagine driving a small boat on the sea surface, with a lighthouse shining back and forth on the sea. If the lights gather into a small beam and follow the ship's course, it is locked in.

The same principle applies between fighter jets and radar.

In scanning mode, the radar has a wide beam and continuously rotates 360 degrees. There is a radar wave receiving device on the fighter jet. If only intermittent radar irradiation signals are received, it means that the radar is only looking for the target. Even if the aircraft is detected, it only knows the approximate position. If the aircraft is rapidly maneuvering and leaving the original area, it will fly out when the radar rotates again to scan the area just now.

If you turn around and still find yourself there, the radar will focus on scanning the fighter jet and no longer blindly turn around. This way, the radar receiver on the fighter jet will continuously receive radar illumination signals, knowing that the radar has detected you and locked itself in.

After being locked, the missile is launched. Based on the information provided by the ground radar, the missile first flies to the vicinity of the target, and then turns on its own radar. At this point, the fighter jet will notice another beam of radar waves, indicating that the missile is not far from the fighter jet.

How do fighter jets know that they have been locked by radar and the location and distance of incoming missiles?

Aircraft are equipped with onboard warning radar, which can analyze the relative orientation, velocity, and other characteristics of enemy missiles by receiving active radar lock signals from them. But this only applies to active radar guided missiles.

Missile engines generate infrared and ultraviolet radiation during operation, and fighter jets can also rely on receiving infrared and ultraviolet signals from missiles for early warning.

The installation of ultraviolet warning equipment on aircraft can be divided into two forms: internal installation and pod. The system can automatically and continuously work, quickly identify threats, and guide countermeasures. However, when the missile engine stalls, it is easy to lose the target.

Infrared alarm relies on detecting the infrared radiation signal generated by the rapid friction and heating between the tail flame or body of an incoming missile and air. Compared with ultraviolet alarm, it has the ability to provide full time warning, but it is expensive and difficult to maintain.

There are also several small radars on the fighter jet that continuously search and scan the airspace, accurately measuring the speed, distance, angle, and other information of incoming missiles. But it is prone to electromagnetic interference. When there is a mission that requires the fighter jet to maintain radio silence, the radar must be turned off, and it cannot serve as a warning for missile attacks.

In addition, different types of radars use different frequencies, wavelengths, and scanning methods, and there are also electronic warfare aircraft that go out to collect intelligence to collect various types of radar data from other armies. Then, based on the collected data, a radar warning system can be developed.

In modern air combat, once a fighter jet is locked by a missile, there are only two ways to escape tracking:

Passive defense system for fighter aircraft equipment

Utilize high mobility for tactical maneuvering

Passive defense system is the process of throwing "decoy shells" during missile pursuit. Currently, there are mainly two types of air-to-air missiles: radar guided and infrared guided. Therefore, chaff jamming shells are thrown to deal with radar guided missiles, and infrared jamming shells are thrown to deal with infrared guided missiles. Advanced air-to-air missiles have particularly strong anti-interference capabilities and are easy to distinguish between real and fake targets, so their effectiveness is very limited. The more advanced performance of towed decoys is superior to foil decoy shells in terms of simulation level and interference persistence.

The J-10 fighter squadron has practiced the tactic of using salvo decoy missiles to interfere, and there are photos showing the H-6 firing a long string of infrared decoy missiles, which is a typical feature of the "area interference infrared countermeasure" technology.

But once the opponent launches too many missiles, the passive defense system will lose its effectiveness, and as long as one missile hits, the entire fighter jet may be scrapped.

As for tactical maneuvering, it is a common evasion method in movies, which may have been more effective decades ago.

For example, during the Cold War, the Soviet MiG-25, with its speed and maneuverability exceeding Mach 3, made even advanced American missiles capable of striking in the air.

But nowadays, most missiles are faster than fighter jets, and as long as they are within the effective range of the missile, it is difficult for fighter jets to escape the pursuit of the missile with speed.

Taking surface to air missiles as an example, their speed is mostly around 4 Mach, and none of the current fighter jets in various countries can reach such a level. This means that as long as they are locked by the missile, these fighter jets will hardly have much reaction time.

Moreover, it will not only launch one missile. Under the siege of multiple missiles, even if the fighter jet has strong maneuverability, it cannot be an enemy with multiple missiles.

In the Hollywood movie "Deep Behind Enemy Lines", the protagonist's F18 fighter jet and the opponent's launched Sam-2 missile staged a thrilling chase scene. The F18 threw bait rounds and made various evasive actions, but it was ultimately hit.

However, the several minute chase scene in the movie is simply impossible in reality. Once a missile hits, the pilot only has 2-3 seconds to make a decision. Hollywood is addicted to making car chase scenes, the sky is not a road, and the speed of missiles and planes is not on the same level.

In addition to surface to air missiles, there are also air-to-air missiles, which have a faster speed. Once a fighter jet is locked by such missiles, there is almost no chance of escape.

Even in the history of warfare, there are only a few fighter jets that can successfully evade missiles. Even the F-15 was shot down by the Houthi militants in Yemen, indicating that fighter jets are very vulnerable in the face of missiles.

Of course, the evasion probability of a fighter jet is also determined by the type of fighter jet and the performance of its missiles. However, regardless of the type of fighter jet, with advanced missile technology, the probability of successfully evading after being locked in is no more than 10%, optimistically speaking, it is 20%, and the pilot's escape probability is no more than 50%.

That is why efforts are being made to develop stealth fighter jets to reduce the possibility of being detected by radar.

Source: Military Black Technology